How to Scientifically Select Your NCAA Winners

Join my NCAA Tournament Charity Pool or my OpenSourceCF.com NCAA Pool!

My friend "cyklone" wrote this and posted it to the sports conference on M-Net.

For too long, naive NCAA office pool gamblers have made poor, uneducated choices. However, the savvy player knows that statistical analysis of years of tournament results reveal certain unalterable truths. Now, you too can share these little-known secrets . . . .

The State Rule

Avoid all teams with "State" in their name, except when it is preceded by the name of a real state and the state's name consists of one word. In other words, Michigan State, Ohio State and Arizona State are OK picks. But Rhode Island State and North Dakota State are not. Finally, never pick a team with "State" in its name if the preceding word is not actually a state. For instance, "Ball" is not a real state. Neither is Murray, or Wayne, or Weber.

Of course, some of you with long memories may object and point to North Carolina State. However, that was simply the exception that proved the rule. And we all know what happened to Coach Valvano.

The Geography Rule

Avoid all teams that have geographical indicators in their name such as North, East or Southwest. Thus, one should not expect a team named "Southeastern Idaho" to go far in the tournament. These teams sometimes win the first or second rounds, but will consistently lose thereafter. Bet on it.

The Mascot Rule

With two exceptions, always choose the team with the more aggressive-sounding nickname. A "Blue Demon" will almost always beat a "Duck." The skilled bettor is also particularly wary of nicknames that involve land, such as the "Pioneers", "Mountaineers", "Squatters" and "Surveyors."

The first exception, however, is when the nickname sounds nonsensical, such as "Billiken" or "Hoya." Believe it or not, these are proven winners. The second exception is to avoid aggressive nicknames that refer to teams in violation of the geography or state rules. Which means teams like the "Northeast West Virginia State Mountain Lions" will lose. Wager accordingly.